Fantasque Time Line

[Archibald]

[mikey1983]

Sakhalin, for reference (from wikipedia):

OTL:

Order of battle:

USSR

* 2nd Far Eastern Front (General of the Army Maksim Purkayev)

** 16th Army (General Leonty Cheremisov)

*** 56th Rifle Corps

* 79th Rifle Division
* 2nd Rifle Brigade
* 5th Rifle Brigade
* 214th Tank Brigade
* 113th Rifle Brigade

*** 255th Composite Aviation Division (106 aircraft)

* Pacific Fleet (Admiral Ivan Yumashev)

* Northern Pacific Flotilla (Vice-Admiral V.A. Andreev)
* Pacific Fleet naval aircraft (80 aircraft)
* 365th Naval Infantry Battalion

Total strength: 100,000 men



Japan

IJA:

* 88th Infantry Division of the Japanese Fifth Area Army (Lieutenant General Kiichiro Higuchi)

* Karafuto fortified area of the Border Guard (17 bunkers, 28 artillery and 18 mortar positions, and other facilities; garrison of 5,400 troops).
* Detachments of Reservists

IJN:

* Naval Infantry

* Northeast Air Fleet Karafuto Region ground defence units
* some units from Ominato Defence Force
* part of the Soya Defence Force - the icebreaker Odomari, the special gunboat Chitose Maru, the Soya Defence Guard Station, and the Nishinotoro Defence Guard Station.
* Toyohara Navy Office - Military Attaché: Rear Admiral Koichi Kuroki

Total strength: 19,000 men (excluding 10,000 reservists)

Invasion:

On 11 August, two days after the beginning of the Soviet invasion of Manchuria, the Soviet 16th Army commenced the ground invasion of South Sakhalin. The Soviet advance was halted by the Japanese defense of the Karafuto Fortress line. The 16th Army invasion force, which consisted of roughly 20,000 men and 100 tanks, outnumbered the Japanese defenders 3 to 1. However, the Soviet advance was minimal and was held off for four days on the Karafuto line.

On 15 August, Imperial Japanese headquarters issued the order to halt all offensive combat operations and engage in cease-fire negotiations; however, the 5th Area Army issued a contrary order to the 88th Division to defend Sakhalin to the last man. On the same day, 3,000 Japanese troops surrendered at the Karafuto Line. Japanese military casualties were 568 dead.

Soviet naval invasion and blockade:

In order to speed up the invasion of South Sakhalin and relieve pressure on the ground invasion, the Soviet Navy launched an amphibious assault operation against key Japanese ports. A naval blockade of Sakhalin island was put into place to prevent the evacuation of Japanese troops. Civilian convoys were targeted by Soviet submarines in the Aniva Gulf.

On 16 August, the Soviet coast guard ship Zarnitsa, four minesweepers, two transports, six gunboats and 19 torpedo boats docked in Port Toro. Around 1,400 Soviet troops of the 365th Separate Marine Battalion and one battalion of the 113th Rifle Brigade landed in Toro (now Shakhtyorsk) and engaged a Japanese garrison of 200 men. Toro was captured and the next day they captured four populated areas and the port city of Esutoru (now Uglegorsk), Anbetsu (now Vozvrashcheniye) and Yerinai. Japanese casualties were 100 killed, 150 wounded and 30 captured. Soviet casualties were 12 killed.

On 20 August, 3,400 troops of the Soviet Navy combined marine battalion and the 113th Rifle Brigade landed in Port Maoka (now Kholmsk). The landing party was met with a fierce Japanese defense. A few naval vessels were damaged, which led to the Soviet response of intense naval bombardment of the city, causing approximately 600 to 1,000 civilian deaths. Maoka was captured on 22 August, with heavy Japanese resistance continuing throughout the city. Japanese military casualties in this battle were 300 killed and 600 captured. Soviet casualties were 60 army soldiers killed and 17 naval infantry killed.

On 25 August, 1,600 Soviet troops landed in Otomari (now Korsakov). The Japanese garrison of 3,400 men surrendered. On the same day, the remnants of the Japanese 88th Division surrendered to the 16th Army and the city of Toyohara was captured without resistance, officially ending the invasion of Sakhalin.

EDIT (from https://codenames.info/operation/south-sakhalin-offensive-operation/):

After the success of the assault, between 22 and 24 August Soviet reinforcements arrived from Vladivostok and proceeded to clear the Japanese forces from the southern part of Sakhalin. According to refugees already evacuated from the area, Soviet forces carried out potent naval gunfire and artillery attacks against Japanese installations in Maoka, Shikuka and groups of civilians awaiting evacuation, resulting in the deaths of about 1,000 civilians. Witnesses reported that many of the fatalities were attributable to confusion in the minds of the Soviets by the general use among male civilians of the kokumin-fuku, men’s approved clothing which bore a close resemblance to military uniforms.

A number of telephone operators at the city post office in Maoka opted not to be evacuated, and these maintained contact with the city of Wakkanai on Hokkaido, as well as mainland Japan, until the moment that the Soviets destroyed the city’s postal and telephone buildings. On 20 August, fearing that they would be raped by the Soviets, nine of the 12 female operators killed themselves with poison, and the other three were saved by their male colleagues' intervention. The survivors at the post office were treated well by the Soviets.

[ChtiJef]

[patzekiller]

le problème étant qu'en avril mai, il n'y a pas forcément de déclaration "pour accepter l'inacceptable", ce peut etre résolu sous la forme d'une crise gouvernementale qui remet les faucons au pouvoir.

il y aura là un choix scénaristique à faire...d'où le sujet de discussion actuel

la rédaction dépendra donc de la conjonction du scénario opérationnel choisi et des aléas politiques à tokyo que l'on choisira également, pas simple de gérer ça : la biblio seule ou la conviction intime ne suffisent pas
_________________
www.strategikon.info
www.frogofwar.org

[Wings]

[Colonel Gaunt]

[mikey1983]

And yes, most of the invasion of Sakhalin occurred after the surrender of August 15, which knocked the wind out of the Japanese military and likely contributed to the surrender of the 3,000 troops at the Karafuto Line, among other things.

But an invasion taking place at a time when Japan has not yet been double-tapped by two atomic bombs and where "death before dishonor" remains the prevailing ethos likely results in a bloodier battle on Sakhalin, along with the Kuriles.

[Imberator]

[patzekiller]

[Wings]

Si il y a risque de voir les rouges au-dela de la Yalu et du 38e parralele, c'est bien possible que les U.S décident de s'emparer de Jeju. Et cela permettrait de resserer un peu plus le blocus du Japon.
_________________
"It takes the Navy three years to build a ship. It will take three hundred years to build a new tradition. The evacuation will continue." Sir Andrew Cunningham, Mai 1941
"Let me soar! [...] I need no great host, just [Tyene]" - Nymeria Sand, AFFC II

[ChtiJef]

Je voudrais signaler une chose : OTL, l'Empereur a parlé à la radio. C'est inouï, ça n'est jamais arrivé, c'est invraisemblable, c'est du "jamais-vu". S'il l'a fait, bien que je sois pas dans la tête de Sa Majesté Impériale, c'est, parce qu'il sait qu'après qu'il aura parlé, tout le pays s'inclinera cérémonieusement, sans même chercher à discuter (après tout, ça fait combien d'années qu'on clame sur tous les tons qu'Il est un être divin, sacré au point qu'on n'ose même pas lever les yeux sur Lui, quand Il lui arrive de quitter son palais ?) . Les putschistes le savent aussi, c'est pourquoi leur priorité est de mettre la main sur l'enregistrement : diffusé, quoiqu'ils fassent, ils seront impuissants, désavoués, pire : déshonorés.
Tout ceci pour dire ma conviction (qui finalement, est celle qui prévalait aux USA) que l'Empereur n'est pas un pantin et qu'au final, c'est lui qui décide
_________________
"Les armes ne doivent pas être utilisées dans des guerres" - Alain Berset, président de la Confédération helvétique

[Monomaker]

[mikey1983]

[patzekiller]

je comprends et j'entends ton raisonnement...

cependant, il y a, à mon sens, quelques éléments à prendre en compte :

alors que les Américains sont en train de payer chèrement les opérations d'Okhinawa, les Japonais constatent l'effondrement en Mandchourie puis en Corée...

ce doit être la panique au gouvernement qui voit les rouges arriver à Pusan quasi sans opposition. so, what's next?

l'étape suivante peut être la traversée du détroit de tsushima par les rouges. l'état major doit se douter cependant que ce secteur est plus de la responsabilité des Américains...et puis traverser? avec quoi? les reconnaissances doivent montrer une absence de navire russe sur les cotes de la mer du Japon...

un autre scénario doit se faire jour : Sakhaline, au coeur d'un différent russo-japonais depuis 40 ans ; et le nord du japon.

c'est pour cela que sur ce point, je ne suis pas d'accord avec toi. même s'il faut racler les fonds de tiroirs, l'état major doit trouver des renforts à envoyer sur Sakhaline et Hokkaido (je suis d'accord qu'ils peuvent considérer les kouriles comme "expendables").

la 5e armée de zone (wiki) qui défend le nord du Japon est composée de :
7th Infantry Division
42nd Infantry Division
77th Infantry Division
88th Infantry Division
89th Infantry Division
91st Infantry Division
101st Independent Mixed Brigade (Imperial Japanese Army)
129th Independent Mixed Brigade (Imperial Japanese Army)

il doit y avoir moyen de redéployer au moins une division sur Hokkaido/Sakhaline.

Evidemment ceci serait valable dans le cadre d'un scénario où les opérations sur Sakhaline sont postérieures au gros de la campagne Mandchourie Corée.
_________________
www.strategikon.info
www.frogofwar.org

[loic]